predictopoly

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predictopoly

Calibration training on real Polymarket questions. Set the probability of YES, see how sharp you actually are.

Live markets

Currently-open questions. Scored when they resolve.

Past markets

~47k resolved questions. Instant feedback against the outcome and the closing price.

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your probability that YES

50%

0% No 50% 100% Yes

market open

you

market now

delta

Saved to your Open tray. Comes back scored when this market resolves.

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resolved

You scored higher than of predictopoly players on this question.

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Open predictions

Predictions you've made on currently-open markets. Each one gets scored automatically when its market resolves and moves into your Stats.

No live-market predictions are currently open

Switch to Live markets on the Play screen and make a prediction - it lands here until the market closes, then gets scored automatically.

History

Every prediction you've made that has resolved, newest first. Live-market picks that have since landed are tagged so you can spot them.

Nothing here yet - predict a few questions to start your track record.

Stats

predicted 0

lifetime points 0

avg / question -

Detailed scoring

avg brier-

avg log-

vs market-

Reliability

Each dot is a probability bucket - hover for what it means. The dashed diagonal is perfect calibration.

By category

Where the market knew better

Predictions where you were further from the truth than the market consensus by at least 30pp. These are the teachable misses - the crowd had information you didn't, so it's worth reading the question again and asking what you missed. Hit mark revisited once you've re-read one and the next biggest miss takes its slot.

"Reset everything" wipes predictions and deck preferences, the Open tray, and the welcome guide - exactly the state a first-time visitor sees.

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Open predictions

No live-market predictions are currently open

History

Stats

Detailed scoring

Reliability

By category

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